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William HillDefinition of betting Value?
Value, the elusive commodity, that’s hard to spot, can’t be eaten and like beauty is very much in the eye of the beholder. I should know, today I punted Celestial Halo at 5/2 and Description at 2/1, watching them get beaten and return starting prices of 7/4 and 13/8 respectively. If Celebration had read the script a good days betting would have become an exceptional days punting. No worries, another day of lemonade lifestyle (and lemonade money) won’t damage me irrevocably, especially as being a non-drinker the champagne lifestyle doesn’t do much for me. I have tried drinking diet coke out of a flute glass, but the look wasn’t quite the cosmopolitan one I was striving for.
A "Value" Cake!
Value, Value, er Value?
In the week I had the pleasure of having lunch with the Trading Director of one of the bookmakers that in my day job we are a supplier to. During the hour he suffered in my company we had quite a thought provoking conversation about betting value, specifically in regard to how we as punters are prone to cycles of winning and losing. Kevin Pullein wrote a fascinating piece about this in the front of the Racing Post a few weeks back (hey @Racing_Post let him out of the back pages!) in which he cited several pro’s. One of the interviewed backers talked about betting patterns with the analogy of a hang-glider gently losing altitude until a thermal (in the form of a good win) soars him up, presumably not in the style of Icarus.
Inherent within this conversation was the concept of value; indeed it’s one that has always fascinated me. How much do we bet with our hearts and how much do we bet with our heads? For me, when I lose a lot I am prone to chasing a little, taking a tilt at a runner at a shorter price than I intended and so on. Likewise when playing it up, a winning run often comes to an end, pride preceeds a fall, and once again judgement of value goes out of the window.
Alongside both of Kipling’s twin imposters there’s also the inexorable drain that even to win 52% of the time 48% of the time you will have to lose. To be honest an inability to deal with losing runs is one of the reasons that I am most certainly not destined to join the ranks of Harry Findlay, Tony Bloom and co. When I am out of form, I have a tendency to lose the ability to judge value. My solution is to take time off. I am in often in danger of going on “tilt” as the poker boys say.
Anyhow, I intended to blog about value, and have just written paragraphs about punting cycles. So back on track, and as a bit of fun for the following four options pick to bet on A or B. The stakes are hypothetical and could be a crisp pink £50 that you found on the street, your last £1000 or your life! For arguments sake all the betting books are priced to 108%, I guess that the racing bookies must be offering great value in some of these examples.
Which of these two would you back?
A) Handicapper at Lingfield on All Weather that has been backed from 10/1 to 5/2?
B) Horse in the same race that opened as 5/6 jolly but is now on offer at 2/1?Which of these two would you back?
A) 5/2 Favourite of the Champion Hurdle?
B) 7/4 Heavyweight Boxer, challenging the reigning champ who is 2/5?Which of these two would you back?
A) 15/8 Novice Chaser at Ascot?
B) 11/10 favourite in Big Brother?Which of these two would you back?
A) Horse you fancy that has drifted to 100/30 from 15/8 in the opening race of the day (no on-running accumulator liabilities from the off-course “Office Money” firms)
B) Horse that you don’t like (in same opening race) that has been backed into 5/4 favourite from 2/1, but about whom a fictitious solitary layer is prepared to lay you 15/8 because he wants to date your sister – oh and it’s too near the off to hedge on Betfair you cheeky arb shark!
Bet365 98% book value for Cherry Hogs!
On the subject of value, the Wife’s away tonight and I plan to settle down on the sofa to watch RP Greyhound TV and have a few fun punts. Looking through the Racing Post and the 10:03 at Newcastle (used to be called Brough Park in my day) had a combined best-priced percentage of 98%, with Bet365 biggest about the two market leaders. As it was 5-2 the field I fancied a sneaky dutch of them both, especially as the four dog looked to have plenty of early. As well as being top of the shop in a over-broke book the Stoke mob also give you a free bet on the following race if you back a televised winner over 2/1. On paper all was looking good, however sadly I left it until 11am to notice it, and by then both prices had gone. You can’t eat value, especially if you are too slow to get on!
I have been involved in the betting industry since the late 90’s and have in that time worked for a on course bookmaker (at now much missed Catford Dogs), spent time at a leading spread betting company, and worked for Betfair in their two year start-up phase.
In 2007 I co-founded iGaming supplier Hyperion Gaming with long suffering business partner Alex Lafferty.
Being involved in the industry for so long has given me a good understanding of the wonderful world of online gambling, and I put effort into giving honest opinions, that remain my own!
