Paddock Judges

As a kid almost every weekend was spent at a London racetrack, my Dad is/was a regular punter and I was no stranger to the play grounds and creches of Royal Ascot (summer playground cool, Winter supervised crèche grim), Sandown, Goodwood (wicked fairground), Lingfield (used to like running around the ponds there), Plumpton, Newmarket.

In the evenings it was Hove, Catford and Wimbledon (but this blog isn’t about the greyhounds). When I came of punting age I got into racing big style from 1998 and my final year’s A-Level grades were not helped by cutting afternoons to go racing, mainly for some reason Brighton. Being an inquisitive type I did my best to try to get my head around all the fun and games that was taking place around me. Picked up a few things along the way, such as tic-tac, racing slang, taking the fractions, races to swerve and so forth. I thought would be good to share a few pointers about what to look for when watching the horses in the paddock.

From the “get-go” (don’t you just love those American sayings) it is worth pointing out that I don’t consider myself an expert on paddock observation, but I do know when to spot certain things. If anything I tend to focus more on negatives that would put me off backing a horse that I fancy, rather than changing my opinion on which horse to back. Essentially after looking into the form, picking a value punt, then my visit to the paddock is to check that my horse is looking okay. If it’s showing seriously negative signs then I would look to wipe my mouth and walk away, if it was showing some concerning indications then I try to weigh up relative merits a fresh and perhaps still step in, but to lower stakes. As they used to say about the pre bet deliberations “do you hold it, or do you fold it”?

Many tracks have both a paddock and a pre-paddock saddling enclosure, Sandown being the perfect example. These tracks allow you to spend a good few minutes observing the horses but still afford time to get into the betting jungle and sniff out the best price.

In terms of horses being in good condition it’s worth bearing something in mind. Usain Bolt could spend three months eating junk food (believe he has said in interviews he eats fried chicken all the time anyhow the maverick!) not exercise at all and spend ten hours a day watching daytime telly. During the same time I could be eating refined pasta, jogging 6 hours a day and generally making myself look superb. Lining up waiting for the start pistol I would be looking trim and lean, but at the winning tape Usain Mr Bolt would still be accelerating away from me. The point being, that even if a horse is looking really perfect it may only account for 4/5lb of form, if that. An out of condition listed horse will still beat a superbly turned out plater.

As stated earlier on I tend to look for negatives more than positives, but on the flip side of the coin positive indications can be told about a horse’s form by it’s coat. Generally if it looks in good condition, and is shinny then it’s a good sign. Likewise muscle tone is something real paddock experts look at, it’s a good sign if the horse shows good definition. A hint of ribcage shows that the animal isn’t carrying any excess fat, well-proportioned hind quarters are also important. My professional working experience has been in the betting industry (Betfair mainly) and not working for a race horse trainer so sadly I don’t have the ability to judge a horse by it’s gait as it walks around the paddock. There are specialists who can take paddock observation to a very high degree.

A few years back I enjoyed reading “The Winning Look” by Nick Mordin, and that went into things such as curvature of the spine and other more advanced indications. The 1994 book is currently out of print and can only be brought from Amazon used, but worth keeping an eye out for on eBay.

My main focus is on looking for something that would put me off a bet, and not put me onto a bet. The main one is sweating. If a horse sweats profusely it’s an indication of extreme nerves and is generally held to be a serious negative. There are exceptions, and this is why when a horse sweats it isn’t always immediately pushed out to 33/1.

Some horses have a history of sweating up and recording good form (it’s worth learning these as you can often bet against the market if they drift), and others can overcome this negative. The most recent Derby was one by Pour Moi who sweated up pre race, and was chased home in 3rd by Carlton House who did likewise. By sweating it’s worth distinguishing between a couple of patches on a warm summer day and lathers of thick white sweat. If a horse I fancy is sweating up (without a history of such) I don’t back it, or at a minimum reduce bet size considerably.

The other main negative is a horse being on its toes. If a horse is hoping around the paddock, “on its toes”, and generally showing signs of distress, this is typically an animal that’s not on it’s game. In my experience I am even less forgiving on an experienced horse that has had a few runs around the track, than a two year old making it’s first outing. I place even more gravitas on a horse being on it’s toes if it is about to go off for a Novice Chase or Hurdle as lack of focus will likely result in a fall. The only races where I try to me more forgiving of over exuberance is for sprinters, as these horse are set to explode from the stalls.

Another thing I like to see is alertness, a horse with its head in the air and ears pricked is always a nice sign, the other end of the spectrum being a listless head down posture.

The last pointer is not something you need to worry about for the Grand National, or Cheltenham Gold Cup/Champion Hurdle, that’s a colt having a massive stiffie! I’m not being irreverent, or wandering into the depths of animal porn. Colt’s have been known to get “over excited” being in the presence of a few nice smelling fillies. Having a baseball bat hanging between its legs doesn’t increase his chance of winning, perhaps due to distraction, perhaps due to bad aero-dynamics! This does happen, can’t remember name of horse, but distinctly remember a colt suffering this embarrassing affliction in the Derby in the early ’00′s. Any one who remembers the name please tweet me @SportB_Guardian!

So in conclusion, as stated at the top, I give credence to certain things in the paddock, notably sweating, and horses being on their toes. My punting personally is more to ascertain that my fancy isn’t affected. I don’t form an opinion solely from the paddock, and think it’s erroneous to take a betting view solely from what one sees at the paddock, for me the form book is still king. It should be noted that on Channel Four their “paddock pick” highlight doesn’t typically have the bookmakers quaking in their boots. There are different depths to paddock judgment and I am content to only stick to a few indicators. Some people truly excel in this field, however it’s challenging at the advanced level, especially if you are stood in the paddock at Fontwell Park, as none of the horses will be anatomically perfect hence why they are racing at a lower level.

Looking forward to reading any comments, and good luck in all your punting!

Chris Denny

I have been involved in the betting industry since the late 90’s and have in that time worked for a on course bookmaker (at now much missed Catford Dogs), spent time at a leading spread betting company, and worked for Betfair in their two year start-up phase.

In 2007 I co-founded iGaming supplier Hyperion Gaming with long suffering business partner Alex Lafferty.

Being involved in the industry for so long has given me a good understanding of the wonderful world of online gambling, and I put effort into giving honest opinions, that remain my own!

Chris Denny+