Cheltenham Festival 2012 Update: Henderson's Hopes

Henderson’s Cheltenham Festival Hopes 2012

A very quick update on a few of Nicky Henderson’s hopefuls for the up and coming 2012 Cheltenham Festival. I am getting really excited about Cheltenham already and unfortunately we still have 3 months to go until blast off, oh well, perhaps watching the Victor Chandler Chase this weekend will be of some solace.

Betting on a Gold Cup hopeful

Burton Port is a 40/1 shot for the 2012 Gold Cup

Henderson has a very interesting Gold Cup hopeful up his sleeve this year in the form of the relatively unknown quantity Burton Port. Burton Port has been away from the race track for 14 consecutive months, so naturally a price of 40/1 with Sportingbet takes this into account.

There are many who believe that this classy chaser may hold a couple of aces, so pending success in a prep run over the next couple of months, the 40/1 now on offer could represent good value. Burton Port is as short as 25/1 with Bet365 to win the Betfred Gold Cup, so at 40/1 with Sportingbet, an each way interest with a top three finish at 10/1 seems to make sense.

Yes, I know, 14 months off isn’t ideal, but Burton Port finished 2nd to Diamond Harry in the Hennesy in November 2010, so the 8 year old has class and an outside shot for a place on that form, given that was also his first outing in 7 months.

I think you will need to be an optimistic sort to think that on current form, with an official rating of 157, Burton Port can win the Gold Cup in 2012. In saying that, a place on current known form is definitely a possibility, so betting the 40/1 each way is not the worst idea in the world, as a good prep run and boost in the ratings would see Henderson’s charge go off at a much shorter price on Gold Cup day.

Ryanair Chase chance – French Opera

French Opera may head to the Grand Annual Chase at Cheltenham

This 9 year old by Saddler’s Wells is a hopeful Cheltenham Festival entry in both the Ryanair Chase and also the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase. The Ryanair Chase looks wide open in 2012, with Noble Prince heading the market at 6/1 with Sportingbet and William Hill. French Opera is a best price of 33/1 with Paddy Power and Bet365 for Ryanair Chase glory, which also reflects the fact that he may be a more serious prospect for the Grand Annual Chase, the Grade 3 handicap and finale to the Cheltenham Festival.

French Opera should probably be avoided for betting purposes on the Ryanair Chase at 33/1, due to the fact he is not a certain runner in the race. The gelding is yet to receive a price for the Grand Annual Chase, so perhaps waiting to see what happens with regard to an entry there is a better option.

French Opera could come back for a Cheltenham prep run in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury in February, so watch this space for further updates on his eventual festival target.

Riverside Theatre – A good bet for the Ryanair Chase

Riverside Theatre is a class act and the bookies know it. Officially rated at 165 and with 4 wins out of only 7 chasing starts, this 8 year old Irish import is third in the betting for the Ryanair Chase, inspite of not having raced for 11 months.

The winner of the Betfair Ascot Chase in 2011 will most likely return to the Berkshire track to defend his crown this year, as his sole preparation run for the 2012 Ryanair Chase.

Expect the 10/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor to be gone if Riverside Theatre hacks up at Ascot. Henderson has stressed that the talented chaser “doesn’t need as much work” as other horses to get right, so you may well see a strong showing at Ascot inspite of a lay off of 12 months.

In terms of betting, my advice would be to back Riverside Theatre now at 10/1 for the Ryanair, as I believe his price on the day could be as short as 6 or 7/1.

Champion Hurdle contender – Spirit Son

Spirit Son is a contender for the 2012 Champion Hurdle

In 2011 Spirit Son finished second in the Stan James Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham and his odds of 8/1 with Stan James and BetFred for glory in this year’s Champion Hurdle betting market mean this 6 year old must be respected.

He bullied Cue Card impressively enough to win by 13 lengths in the grade 2 John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in April last year and with a record of 4 wins and 1 second over hurdles in 5 career starts, his credentials must be taken seriously.

Henderson has stated that the warm up for Spirit Son could be the BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on 29th of January. Hurricane Fly, the favourite for the 2012 Champion Hurdle is 4/5 favourite for the Irish equivalent, so this will be a significant race for us punters in trying to identify the eventual winner of the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle.

My betting advice in relation to Spirit Son and the 2012 Champion Hurdle would be to leave the 8/1 at present, as if he is turned over at Leopardstown later in January the price may drift. There are no guarantees that Spirit Son will head to Ireland, but if Hurricane Fly does and consequently wins, surely his odds will contract further for the 2012 Champion Hurdle crown, so there is a good chance Spirit Son may be pushed out to a bigger price.

Alex Lafferty

It was back in 2005 that I moved over to Dublin to work for the Irish betting exchange, Betdaq. Having graduated from Newcastle University a year earlier, I enjoyed the odd pint of Guinness and had a passion for the betting industry, so I suppose there was as good a place to start as any! Over the past 4.5 years, I have been a co-Director at the online gaming recruitment specialist Hyperion Gaming, so I have been living and breathing the betting industry for most of my working life. I hope that some of my experiences working in the industry and as a punter will be of interest to those of you perusing our pages. I am very excited to be a part of rolling out with this project and hope to provide you all with some juicy betting blogs and additional ammo with which to take on the bookies. Enjoy the site and happy punting. Alex Lafferty+